This blog will follow the economic position of Brazil in the winter/spring of 2011. My purpose for this blog is to improve my knowledge of Brazil's fiscal activity as well as to inform others about this South American, economically expanding country. I want to encourage readers to contribute and comment freely.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Conclusion
Rouseff Fiscal Restraint--Cut Spending and Reduce High Real Interest Rate
"First, Brazil clearly went through a particularly acute case of the “political business cycle”, the well documented tendency for governments to ramp up spending before elections. The recent increases in big spending, first justified as an anti-cyclical, “Keynesian” response to the 2008 crisis, continued unabated even with economic growth topping 7 per cent a year. Now with the election won, there is no electoral reason to keep spending growth at the current level. The second unrecognized reality is that this spending surge is already causing serious imbalances in the economy. This can already be seen in very tight labor markets, surging imports, and continued high inflation for non-tradable items.
...
Fiscal restraint is the key element of a new economic “model” for Brazil, and although changing fiscal policy is always slow and difficult, the incentives to do so now are great. As Rousseff knows, an economic crisis is the one sure way to lose political power."
Tony Volpon of Nomura
Brazil + China = BFFs?

Leading exports to China include: iron ore, soybeans, and crude oil. The iron ore export represents 43% of Brazil's total exports to China.
Some problems are evident between this trade relationship; a large portion of Brazil's imports from China are manufactured products, set at low costs, which affect Brazil's domestic manufacturing industries (that are now struggling to keep up with this competition).
A few tariffs on synthetic fibres imports from China have been put in place by the government and President Dilma Rousseff.